On 3 December, the Ukrainian Minister of Defense, Oleksii Reznikov, spoke of the possibility of a "large-scale escalation" by Russia during the end of January 2022, during a session at the Verkhovna Rada (Ukraine's national parliament). In early December 2021, an analysis conducted by Janes concluded that major elements of the Russian 41st Army (headquartered at Novosibirsk) and the 1st Guards Tank Army (normally deployed around Moscow) had been re-positioned to the west, reinforcing the Russian 20th and 8th Guards that were already positioned closer to the Russo-Ukrainian border. Additional Russian forces were reported to have moved to Crimea, reinforcing Russian naval and ground units that were already deployed there. American intelligence officials warned that Russia was planning an upcoming major military offensive into Ukraine scheduled to take place in January 2022.
Russia began a slow evacuation of its embassy staff at Kyiv beginning in January 2022. The motives of the evacuation remain unknown and were subjected to multiple speculations. By mid-January, an intelligence assessment produced by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence estimated that Russia were in its final stages of completing a military buildup at the Russo-Ukrainian border, amassing 127,000 troops at the region. Among the troops, 106,000 were land forces and the remainder being navals and air forces. Furthermore, there were 35,000 more Russian-backed separatist forces and another 3,000 Russian forces in rebel-held eastern Ukraine. The assessment estimated that Russia had deployed 36 Iskander SRBM systems near the border, many stationed within striking distance of Kyiv.
On 19 January, U.S. president Joe Biden said his "guess" was that Russia "will move in" to Ukraine but Putin would pay "a serious and dear price" for an invasion and "would regret it". Biden added: "It's one thing if it's a minor incursion and we end up having to fight about what to do and not do. But if they actually do what they're capable of doing with the forces amassed on the border, it is going to be a disaster for Russia if they further invade Ukraine."
On 10 February, six Russian warships capable of landing tanks and troops ashore, assigned to Russia's Baltic and Northern Fleets, arrived at the Sevastopol Naval Base in Crimea. On the same day, Russia announced naval exercises to be held in the Black Sea. Meanwhile, Ukraine "strongly protested" against "the decision of the Russian Federation to block parts of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait under the pretext of holding regular naval exercises". Separately, north of Ukraine, Russia and Belarus began joint military exercises, Allied Resolve 2022, close to the Belarusian border with Ukraine, with about 30,000 Russian troops, as well as almost all of the Belarusian armed forces, participating in the drills scheduled to last for 10 days.
On 10 February 2022, the Baltic states invoked the provisions of the Vienna Document 2011 requesting an explanation from Belarus regarding the unusual military activities. On 11 February 2022, Ukraine too invoked Chapter III (risk reduction) of the Vienna Document, requesting that Russia provide "detailed explanations on military activities in the areas adjacent to the territory of Ukraine and in the temporarily occupied Crimea." According to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, no response had been received from Russian authorities within the required 48-hour deadline. On 13 February, Ukraine requested that an emergency meeting within the OSCE be held within the following 48 hours, at which Russia was expected to provide a response. On 14 February, the Ukrainian and Belarusian Defence Ministers, Oleksii Reznikov and Viktor Khrenin, agreed on mutual confidence-building and transparency measures, including visits by Reznikov to the Russian–Belarusian Allied Resolve 2022 exercise and by Khrenin to the Ukrainian Zametil 2022 exercise. The OSCE Vienna Document emergency meeting requested by Ukraine was held on 15 February. The Russian OSCE representative was absent from the meeting.
On 14 February 2022, Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoygu said units from Russia's Southern and Western military districts had begun returning to barracks following the completion of exercises close to Ukraine’s border.
On 16 Feburary, it was reported that Russia would invade Ukraine on the same day.
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